Thursday, November 17, 2016

Election Afterthoughts and the Walmart Correlation

     Since the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States, citizens have surged into our streets to protest the “unfairness” of our Electoral College system.  Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the election because the rules applicable to electoral delegations decided for the nation.  This has happened before.
     Frequent readers of this blog know this writer is not celebrating Trump’s election.  However, I am not among the protesters in Los Angeles because vocal (or violent) protest is seldom useful.  In my opinion, protesters are reinforcing the differences which became starkly evident during this election cycle at a time when we need to embrace our similarities.  For America to remain safe and strong we must pull ourselves together and not tear our nation asunder.
     On November 9, political pundits were stunned as they realized they had failed to accurately predict this election.  For months they focused on public sentiment, historical trends, and parsing the population; but, they failed to look at the impact of state economies.  Macro- and micro-economic models demonstrated long before the election that people who live in poverty have spread into new regions.  To many voters, a Clinton presidency looked too much like the previous administration and another four years of financial insecurity looked like a death sentence.  Through these eyes, poor people with children voted with their stomachs and their hearts.
     There is a distinct relationship between avoidance of economic facts and the pollster’s failure to anticipate Trump’s popularity.  This very unscientific link is what I call “The Walmart Correlation.”
According to a Wall St 24/7 report in March of this year, Walmart is the biggest single private sector employer in 19 states (AL, AZ, AR, FL GA, IL, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, OH, OK, SC, TN, TX, VA, WV, WY).  This is a distressing fact because Walmart is synonymous with low wages and has historically destroyed family-owned small businesses in areas where it opened its stores.  Not surprisingly, in 17 of the 19 states where Walmart is the largest employer, voters gave Trump a victory.  According to the US CensusBureau, 16 of those states were home to more people in poverty than the national average.
     According to a CNNMoney report, in February Walmart increased its minimum wage from $9 per hour to $10, a change that reportedly affected “virtually all of its hourly workers, including some supervisors, which make up the majority of the company's 1.4 million U.S. workers.  The wage hike will boost a full-time worker's average hourly wage by 3% to $13.38. Part-timers will get an average hourly wage of $10.58, up 6%.”  To put it another way, a full-time Walmart worker earns $2,140 per month and part-timer working 30 hours per week earns $1,354 per month.
    This is a small improvement for workers who labor under the miserly fist of a company that was called a “welfare queen” by Bloomberg View reporter Barry Ritholtz in 2013.  Collectively, Walmart employees reportedly are the biggest consumer of public assistance programs such as Medicaid and WIC. According to Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL), Walmart employees are the biggest group of food stamp recipients nationwide and receive $1,000 on average in public assistance.  Although Walmart is acting within the law, they apparently are not compelled to shoulder responsibility for their employees and shift the burden for living wages and healthcare to taxpayers.
     Many Americans are misinformed about the populations which use public assistance programs.  The average food stamp recipient is white (47%).  Women are twice as likely as men to seek food aid.  While Trump did nothing to disabuse voters of the notion that “illegals” are “syphoning money” from food stamp programs, SNAP applications state: "Documented immigrants can only receive SNAP benefits if they have resided within the United States for at least five years..."
     To qualify for food stamps, a three-person family must earn no more than $2,069 per month or $24,800 per year before taxes. Therefore, the full-time Walmart worker earns too much for food stamps while the part-time worker lives well below the poverty line.
     Daily Beast writer Daniel Gross stated Walmart’s allegiance to low wages has had a deleterious effect on local and regional economies including their own.  He said: “Walmart’s same-store sales are falling as the surrounding retail market surges. What’s the problem? By screwing its workers with low wages, the nation’s largest private-sector employer is preventing a huge chunk of the American workforce from shopping at its stores.”
     Trump spoke loudly and clearly to the fears of his supporters by promising to reduce competition for available jobs by removing immigrant workers from the employment pool.  He offered the possibility of employment with an infrastructure project that would build a wall at the borders of states with high levels of poverty.  He tacitly told voters he would secure public aid resources by removing immigrants who allegedly reduced these resources for Americans in need.  Yet, his promise to cut taxes and eliminate Obamacare would erase access to healthcare through Medicaid and resources for public aid for people on the financial edge. Alas, not all change is good.
     For those who are still upset about a Trump presidency, please put the bullhorn down and start listening. The “bigots” who voted for Trump are just like you in their fear and distress.  The truth about many of Trump’s supporters is this: They are disenfranchised Americans who spoke with their ballots because they had no other way to speak.  Look at these facts and do something constructive for Americans who, like you, were voiceless.
     Stop yelling about them and help them.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Think. Vote.

     It is the eve of the 2016 U.S. National Election.  At this point, most of us are sick of television ads, robo-calls and junk mail endorsing both sides of state and local propositions.  I stopped watching television newscasts two months ago because I could no longer stomach gleeful reports of presidential political fisticuffs and slap shots.  While this election cycle has lasted longer than a hockey season, this election is not a game.
     No United States presidential election is a game because the outcome affects the entire planet.
     Cable news and its histrionic, muckraker mentality has allowed Americans to become completely distracted by circus-like entertainment when we should have been concentrating on the fundamentals of national policies that will impact our lives.  While we were cheering the larger-than-life flamboyance of a ringmaster and the zany antics of clowns, we failed to analyze the costs associated with not only buying the ticket, but cleaning up the mess when the show left town.
     Countless voices have warned that American ignorance is dangerous.  World leaders such as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Mexico’s Foreign Minister Claudia Ruiz Massieu are bracing for the possibility that Americans will flood across their borders based on the outcome of this election.  Syrian President Bashar Assad, Former South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Sung-han, French President François Hollande, and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier all addressed the need for stable and rational American leadership to protect world security through formal and informal alliances.
     On October 27 Russia’s Vladmir Putin correctly placed responsibility for America’s future on Americans by stating: “Hysteria has been whipped up in the United States about the influence of Russia over the U.S. presidential election ... It's much simpler to distract people with so-called Russian hackers, spies, and agents of influence. Does anyone really think that Russia could influence the American people's choice in any way?”
     Meanwhile, in March, Australian minister Christopher Pyne said “democracy should be robust, but it certainly shouldn't be violent” and described the behavior of Americans at presidential political rallies as “terrifying.”
     It is clear from this writer’s perspective that the mainstream media has fanned the fires of discontent by focusing on the entertainment value of politics rather than on political fundamentals.  We can surely thank the media and “ratings week” for making Donald Trump a presidential contender while ignoring the hard-won experience and credentials of Hillary Clinton.  Yet, on the eve of the election, here we are.
     I invite readers to leave the circus tent and the din of the crowd to ponder the enormous responsibility of casting a ballot for President of the United States of America.  Consider deeply whether the choice you make will be based on emotion or logic.  Base your decision only on fundamentals such as economic stability, national security, adherence to Constitutional law, and the safety of our streets from threats both foreign and domestic. Do not make a decision based on personalities, rhetoric, costumes worn by of the actors, second-hand information or what will satisfy your momentary happiness.  Think about your community, your city, your state, your region, your country, our neighbors, and the rest of the world.  Take these moments in the silence of this night to think.
     Please, please, think.
     Search yourself for patience, tolerance, peace, and love for family, friends, and country.  Sleep on these important matters one last time.
     And, please, cast your ballot for whatever truth and right and hope is within you.