Presidential Predictions: Part 3, Zero Hour

     It is now only hours until Donald Trump takes the oath of office to become the 45^th president of the United States.  In spite of his confidence leading up to the election, his team apparently was so surprised by his victory that they failed to proactively vet potential cabinet members.  As a result, Trump will take his oath of office without even one cabinet nominee confirmed by the Senate.  Simultaneously, Team Trump is making careless decisions regarding national and domestic security.

Captain Chaos

     Trump is calling for the immediate dismissal of Obama administration appointees, some of whom are in highly sensitive security positions. Beginning at 12:01 p.m., he will retain only six of the 58 high-ranking officials at the Pentagon.  According to Gizmodo.com, red flags went up for Senate Armed Services Committee member, Martin Hienrich (D-NM), when he discovered the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) would have no one at the helm.  In a letter to the president elect dated January 17, Heinrich wrote:

“As you know, all of President Barack Obama’s appointed officials are required to vacate their office unless they are requested by the incoming administration to serve for an extended period of time.  As of today, the heads of maintaining our nation’s nuclear arsenal, Lieutenant General Frank G. Klotz (Ret.), and Principal Deputy Administrator, Madelyn Creedon, have not been requested to continue serving.... This will be the first time in NNSA’s 16-year history, through four different administrations, in which there will not be any continuity of leadership during a presidential transition.

“…I understand that new administrations, regardless of political party, bring new management and personnel, but the United States faces an increasing number of global threats—to include North Korea, Russia, China, Iran, and terrorist organizations across several continents—and we simply cannot afford to allow national security positions to effectively run on “auto-pilot.” The responsibilities are too important.”

     Not only will key administrative positions in the Pentagon be empty, but all diplomats appointed by Barack Obama also must vacate their posts immediately.  This practice is customary.  Unfortunately, the Trump team has made only one diplomatic appointment thus far.  Nicki Haley was tapped to serve as U.N. Ambassador -- just one of the 188 positions that are now vacant.  Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has not and will not be confirmed by the Senate for some time.

     This situation is disturbing for two reasons: 1.) Trump’s speeches have a tendency to agitate listeners and we will not know the impacts of his inaugural speech until he starts talking; and, 2.) He has vowed to continue to communicate his (often vitriolic and bellicose) thoughts via Twitter.  Thus, Trump will speak to the world without diplomats to smooth already ruffled feathers in China, Israel, and Mexico.

     Trump also has left Washington, D.C. a weak spot with the dismissal of the person in charge of a significant segment of inaugural event security.  Washington, D.C. National Guard chief, Major General Errol R. Schwartz, was ordered into retirement effective January 20 at 12:01 p.m. in the midst of the D.C. Guard’s deployment at the inauguration.  According to the Washington Post, Schwartz is responsible for overseeing the D.C. National Guard, coordinating an additional 5,000 unarmed Guard troops from across the country and overseeing military air support at the capital during the ceremony.  Though the official correspondence relieving Schwartz reportedly came from the Pentagon, it is the President who hires and fires the National Guard commander in Washington, D. C.

     Officials will be ready to halt social unrest and threats of terrorism in a crowd of 800,000-900,000 people.  The security team will be comprised of 28,000 personnel from local police agencies, the National Guard, Secret Service, Capitol Police, National Park Service, FBI, Transportation Security Administration and Federal Aviation Administration.  My confidence in these security personnel is not diminished by Schwartz’s dismissal; however, removing a commander in the middle of any major military deployment is disrespectful and hurts morale.

     Trump should know this, but he doesn’t seem to care.  Throughout his campaign, his forceful communication style baited Americans to respond with equal and opposite force from their own perceptual framework.  Not surprisingly, 99 organizations applied to the National Park Service for First Amendment event permits.  Mike Litterst, public affairs officer of the National Mall and Memorial Parks, told NBCnews.com the number of applications is significant because “they typically have only provided about a half dozen for past inaugurations.”

     The Park Service reportedly approved 22 permits for protests ranging in size from 50 people to 200,000.  Leaders of some organizations have pledged to use physical resistance to protect their members if citizens with opposing views threaten them.  The permitting process allows officials to separate groups that might clash.  However, protests with fewer than 25 people need no permit and the NPS has no control over where or how these groups protest.

     For some reason Donald Trump seems confident that everyone will behave and respect his authority.  Has he, in surrounding himself with loyalists and private security details for decades, failed to notice the office of the president comes with increased risk?  Does Trump earnestly believe the stuff of his ego-generated alternate reality; or, does he have something else in mind?

     This writer thinks that if a certain strategy worked once, Trump will use it again to get what he wants.  If Trump ultimately hopes to create a global and domestic structure that benefit his business interests and simultaneously feeds his insatiable ego, he will use it as many leaders have, successfully, throughout history as a means to the same ends.

The Hegelian Principle

     The Hegelian Principle was created by 19^th century German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel. The three-part process of “Thesis, Antithesis, and Synthesis,” has been used repeatedly by leaders interested in gaining power, status, wealth and control.  In America, a recent example of the Hegelian Principle resulted in congress’s approval of the Patriot Act.  Here is how it works.

     First, leaders must create a problem or conflict.  This must be the kind of problem that creates a sense of urgency and fear.  Secondly, the problem must be publicized.  Although the problem is a complete fabrication, incessant media repetition makes this problem seem so real that it causes citizens to clamor for a speedy resolution.  Finally, the leader must offer terrified citizens a solution which, without fail, broadens the power of authorities and reduces the rights of citizens.  The solution previously would not have been acceptable at all without public hysteria.

     So, what’s it going to be, Mr. President?

     Public unrest and race-based violence in the streets?  An international economic reaction to insulting tweets?  The three-headed threat of weak borders, drugs and jihad?  How about a “fake” news conspiracy involving the U.S. government and a shadowy cabal of international hackers?  Trump has been test-marketing all of these made-for-TV scenarios, but this writer predicts the real “disaster” will be echoed in the words of our 42^nd president, Bill Clinton.

     “It’s the economy, stupid.”

     Trump’s tweets already have caused international currency volatility and may annoy the Chinese into slapping the U.S. with trade sanctions.  This, in turn, will erode consumer confidence, increase inflation, cause stock market instability, and piss off the working-class.  If Trump’s campaign promises to reverse DACA are kept, we will witness long-term unemployment as immigrants currently granted work visas lose their jobs.  Retailers already experiencing lower third-quarter earnings will see the trend continue as unemployment and inflation increase.  If economic uncertainty does not raise citizen resentment, reductions in the funding of healthcare programs serving veterans, women and Medicaid qualifiers certainly will.

     The solution presented to respond to one disaster or another will depend upon how citizens react and at what pace the various disasters unfold.  Be completely clear that with every nasty, little Internet chirp, Trump is pushing his agenda forward and he does not give a rat’s back side who gets hurt as long as he wins.

     Stay tuned.  Live and commercial free... The Donald Trump Show airs at 12:01 p.m. EST with a hearty “You’re fired!” to our federal workers.

     So help us, God.

Presidential Predictions: Part Two

     The scenery in Washington, D.C. is changing rapidly.  As predicted in this blog on January 1, movement already has begun to dismantle Obamacare and Donald Trump’s pre-inaugural parade is set to the marshal sounds of saber rattling from North Korea.  Though Trump has not caused European leaders too much heartburn yet, Scottish Sunday Herald writer Damien Love hilariously satirized the upcoming BBC broadcast of the inauguration as the debut of a new “Twilight Zone” series.

     Other administrations would organize a cogent response to these events; but there will be none.  So far the next administration is saying WikiLeaks was never used as a propaganda machine, the CIA disseminates unflattering leaks, Putin doesn’t order hacks, and the sky is falling.  Here’s a look at what we may expect from a few of the players on Trump’s national security and communications teams.

National Insecurity

     Even prior to the January 6 release of the Intelligence Community’s declassified “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections” report, Trump was assaulting directors with disparaging remarks about their competence.  Days later when BuzzFeed.com published a 35-page opposition research dossier containing unverified allegations linking him to Russia, Trump pointedly blamed the U.S. Intelligence Community and likened the event to smear campaigns in “Nazi Germany.”  FBI director James Comey, CIA director John Brennan, NSA director Michael Rogers, and National Intelligence director James Clapper denounced Trump’s statements and cautioned him to use restraint.

     Brennan stated: “There is no interest in undermining the president elect. Our responsibility is to understand dangers on the world stage…”  He also said, “I don't think he has a full appreciation of Russian capabilities, Russia's intentions.”

     Soon, the duty of informing Trump on these dangers will be the task of others.  Trump’s pick for the next CIA director is Kansas representative Michael Pompeo.  To his credit, Pompeo is a bright, driven man who passed at the top of his class at West Point in 1986 and served as editor of the Harvard Law Review while earning his law degree at the University.  Pompeo founded Thayer Aerospace and Private Security, and later became president of oilfield equipment company Sentry International.

     Pompeo is active in the conservative Tea Party movement, is a climate denier, denounced Obamacare, and was highly critical of the Obama administration's decision to close the CIA's secret prisons (“black sites”), and its adherence to anti-torture laws.  Pompeo also is highly offended by whistle-blower Edward Snowden and the reforms that followed his disclosures.

     In January 2016, the Wall Street Journal quoted Pompeo as saying: “Congress should pass a law re-establishing collection of all metadata, and combining it with publicly available financial and lifestyle information into a comprehensive, searchable database. Legal and bureaucratic impediments to surveillance should be removed. That includes Presidential Policy Directive-28, which bestows privacy rights on foreigners and imposes burdensome requirements to justify data collection.”

     Wait…  What?! Let’s look at that quote again. “Legal and bureaucratic impediments to surveillance should be removed…” including the presidential policy directive “which bestows privacy rights on foreigners and imposes burdensome requirements to justify data collection.”

     Yes, he said that out loud.

     The incoming administration may not “fully appreciate” the threat Russia presents, but Trump’s security selections seem to have a common interest in extracting information from citizens and combatants by using the most invasive means available.  According to John Sifton, deputy Washington director of Human Rights Watch, Trump’s selection for National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, also “has exhibited basic contempt for international law, including the Geneva Conventions and laws prohibiting torture.”

     Flynn was tapped to serve as Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for the Obama administration in 2012.  The administration sited hard-line views on Islam and a contentious leadership style as reasons for his dismissal from that post in 2014.  Flynn, famously tweeted “Fear of Muslims is RATIONAL…” (Feb 26, 2016, @GenFlynn).  He has increasingly maintained that all American allies should be marshaled to fight a “world war” against ISIS.  In 2016 Flynn reportedly accepted payment from the Russian state-run media machine RT to dine at an extravagant gala with Vladimir Putin.  Photos of Flynn at that dinner were used by the Kremlin as part of their own propaganda campaign.

     Senators should take a serious look at this guy before rubber-stamping approval.  This is THE PERSON who will provide the last (paranoid) whisper in the president-elect’s ear regarding national security issues and his decisions.

Spicer’s Not Nicer

    The president-elect chose Republican National Committee communications director and chief strategist Sean Spicer to serve as White House press secretary.  Spicer leads the team which now includes Hope Hicks (director of strategic communications), Dan Scavino (director of social media), and Jason Miller (communications director).  Spicer, who has a flair for combative and contentious relationships with the press, already is leaning toward breaking tradition and parting ways with daily press briefings.

     In December, Spicer told Fox’s Megyn Kelly: “…I don’t know that it needs to be daily. I don’t know that they need to be on camera. And I think that’s a view shared by a lot of former White House press secretaries, a view by some in the media, in fact, that the White House press briefings have become somewhat of a spectacle.”

     Under ideal circumstances, being a press secretary to any elected official is a stressful job.  Stuff happens.  You can write a speech and the boss can toss it aside and shoot from the lip, leaving you feeling like the person who follows the horses in the parade.  Given Trump’s penchant for midnight Tweets and (ahem) creativity, I would not want to face the White House press corps every day either.  However, daily briefings provide information and a sense of transparency for the press and the public.

     Media outlets like CNN already are accusing Trump with “gas lighting” the public by meeting the facts of his audio- and video-taped statements with claims these events never happened.  Clearly, if the press secretary doesn’t show up for a media briefing, Trump’s reality will be akin to a shimmering oasis in a waterless fact desert.

     Due to the demands of this job, White House press secretaries seldom survive a full, four-year term no matter who is President.  But, people will go the extra mile if they believe in the product they need to sell to the media.  I would be willing to bet hard money that every member of this crew already has a letter of resignation prepared.  The press office should install a revolving door now.

I Predict

     This will be the most paranoid and least transparent administration America has ever known.  If Trump fails to arrest his Twitter habit, he will be solely responsible for international incidents with countries that can back up their upset with nuclear readiness.

     What’s more, when we hear about it, the press will be quoting (maybe accurate, may paranoid) unnamed sources who contacted them without authorization from the Trump White House because they are freaked out and they love their country (and they might be drunk dialing).

Presidential Predictions: Part One

Like many Americans, at the dawn of a new year I am feeling anxious about our future and how our new leader’s decisions may impact the rest of the world.  One does not need a degree in political science to predict the obstructionist practices of Congress witnessed throughout the Obama administration will continue.  In 2017, I guarantee the color of the road blocks will be blue rather than red.

A great deal of attention will be focused on the Senate in coming weeks as they debate the confirmations of Trump’s cabinet selections.  The words “nepotism,” “campaign donor,” and “no experience” will be prominent in these discussions.  While giving loyalists jobs is nothing new in Washington, serious consideration regarding the résumés of Trump’s picks is imperative.

Here are some of my thoughts and predictions.

Law and Disorder

One of the first things Trump likely will do upon inauguration is reverse President Obama’s 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals executive order. Under that order, approximately 740,000 undocumented immigrants brought to America as children were granted work permits allowing them to remain in the U.S. while they sought citizenship.  If Trump takes the tough line, hundreds of thousands of young adults will be thrown out of work and many will lose educational funding.  Mexican and Canadian officials have been bracing for an influx of returning ex-patriots and immigrants who have sought political and religious asylum in America.

Trump’s claims that DACA is “illegal” will be heard in federal court and he believes Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions can navigate the murky waters of civil rights laws as U.S. Attorney General.  Many in the Senate reportedly disagree with the suitability of this nominee.  Historically, Sessions has been a proponent of reduced funding for tough-on-crime programs and strict immigration enforcement.  However, it is Sessions’ historical racial insensitivity that blocked his nomination as a federal judge in 1986.  During those hearings a parade of legal professionals offered testimony that Sessions was a bigot.  One African-American prosecutor, Thomas H. Figures, stated Sessions called him “boy” and reportedly “admonished me to ‘be careful what you say to white folks’.”  While Sessions may have evolved over the past 40 years, this record will be reopened in the Senate approval process.

No doubt, some decisions regarding civil rights will be brought before the Supreme Court for Constitutional and procedural interpretation.  And who will fill the seat left vacant by the demise of Judge Antonin Scalia?   Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, has been awaiting Senate confirmation for 11 months.  It is likely that if Democrats remain calm, Garland will win approval.  There is no indication that Trump has actually decided to offer his own appointee for the open position at this time although, in May, Trump compiled a list of 11 conservative, white, predominantly male candidates for public consideration.

One would hope Trump is too busy with other matters to intrude in the Supreme Court confirmation process; but, he has demonstrated his ego does not rest.  I predict widespread public protest beginning on January 20 and continuing for some time.

Healthcare

Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly said he would repeal the Affordable Care Act.  His pick for Health and Human Services Secretary is an indication he was serious.  Six-term Congressman Tom Price (R-GA) is an orthopedic surgeon who led opposition to the Affordable Care Act, saying (aud nauseum) that the law interferes with the ability of patients and medical providers to make medical decisions.  Granted, this is an imperfect law; however, rescinding the law in its entirety is not only unlikely but also would be hugely unpopular to people with pre-existing conditions who rely upon its protection.  ACA requires that healthy younger adults who probably would not otherwise purchase health care coverage do so.  This mandate is designed to keep costs lower for the most vulnerable members of society.

International Relations

This writer is very uneasy about the impact Trump and his cabinet selections will have on international relations.

Trump’s choice for Commerce Secretary is Wilbur Ross, a billionaire investor in steel, coal, textiles and automotive operations.  Ross is a strong proponent of privatization and has repeatedly ignored labor concerns and the kinds of serious safety issues that resulted in the Sago mine disaster which killed 12 people.  Ross wants to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports and break the “bondage” of “bad trade deals.”

Expect delays in the potential confirmation of Secretary of State nominee and current Exxon president and CEO Rex Tillerson.  Much has been said in the press about Tillerson’s associations with the leaders of oil rich nations such as Russia who have not always been American allies.  While previous secretaries were nominated because they possessed the diplomatic skills to diffuse aggravation, Tillerson reportedly has used angry outbursts, and projectiles to gain his business objectives in places like Yemen.

As we await Senate confirmations, ponder this:  Trump’s tweets and telephone calls have already angered leaders in China and Israel.  Trump needs a diplomatic corps with the skill to round off his sharp edges and this is not the team with the right stuff.  I expect China will offer retaliatory decisions, the deterioration of Isreali and Palestinian peace, European allies with hurt feelings, heightened mistrust from the Middle East, amplified saber rattling from North Korea and a lot of very uneasy silence in Japan and South Korea.  Delaying Tillerson’s confirmation will not help the situation, but the possibility that Trump will have to identify another selection for Secretary of State may have a preferential result.

Environmental Insecurity

Americans who are concerned by the confluence of industrial imperatives and environmental policies will not be comforted by Trump’s nominations for the secretaries for Interior, the Environmental Protection Agency or the Department of Energy.

Ryan Zinke, Trump’s Department of Interior Secretary nominee, is a former Navy SEAL commander and Montana’s freshman representative.  The department is responsible for managing and conserving federal land and natural resources, the U.S. Forest Service, and administration of programs relating to indigenous people.  Given what transpired recently at the Standing Rock Reservation in the Dakotas, placing a former Navy SEAL chief with seemingly no experience in environmental issues in command of protecting land and people like the Sioux and their embattled treaties is a cognitive disconnection.  Why not nominate a wolf to protect the farm foul, too?

Speaking of cognitive disconnections, Oklahoma attorney general, Scott Pruitt has been given Trump’s endorsement to run the EPA.  Pruitt’s well documented alliance with corporate fossil fuel interests and his failure to defend the environment is anathema to the notion and definition of environmental protection.  Pruitt is a darling of energy industry lobbyists and no friend of the environment.

Let us not forget, that former Texas governor Rick Perry is Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Energy.  While many people confuse the department’s directive with the extraction of fossil fuels, the Energy Department is primarily responsible for protecting America’s nuclear energy and arsenals.  Historically, scientists and (Noble Prize winning) physicists have been placed in this very sensitive position.  Perry, who suggested on several occasions that the agency should be abolished, earned a bachelor’s degree in animal science from Texas A & M.  Perry’s nomination is not only perplexing but really freaking dangerous.

Conclusion

Trump’s selections of cabinet members seem to be unilaterally made to stand in complete opposition of the duties and responsibilities of the departments they would lead.  The nominations are downright baffling.  The hour is late, and there is a great deal of ground to cover.  Stay tuned as up-coming blogs delve deeper into topics such as national security, economics and domestic policy.

For now, I wish all a happy and healthy New Year and peace.