Presidential Predictions: Part 3, Zero Hour

     It is now only hours until Donald Trump takes the oath of office to become the 45^th president of the United States.  In spite of his confidence leading up to the election, his team apparently was so surprised by his victory that they failed to proactively vet potential cabinet members.  As a result, Trump will take his oath of office without even one cabinet nominee confirmed by the Senate.  Simultaneously, Team Trump is making careless decisions regarding national and domestic security.

Captain Chaos

     Trump is calling for the immediate dismissal of Obama administration appointees, some of whom are in highly sensitive security positions. Beginning at 12:01 p.m., he will retain only six of the 58 high-ranking officials at the Pentagon.  According to Gizmodo.com, red flags went up for Senate Armed Services Committee member, Martin Hienrich (D-NM), when he discovered the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) would have no one at the helm.  In a letter to the president elect dated January 17, Heinrich wrote:

“As you know, all of President Barack Obama’s appointed officials are required to vacate their office unless they are requested by the incoming administration to serve for an extended period of time.  As of today, the heads of maintaining our nation’s nuclear arsenal, Lieutenant General Frank G. Klotz (Ret.), and Principal Deputy Administrator, Madelyn Creedon, have not been requested to continue serving.... This will be the first time in NNSA’s 16-year history, through four different administrations, in which there will not be any continuity of leadership during a presidential transition.

“…I understand that new administrations, regardless of political party, bring new management and personnel, but the United States faces an increasing number of global threats—to include North Korea, Russia, China, Iran, and terrorist organizations across several continents—and we simply cannot afford to allow national security positions to effectively run on “auto-pilot.” The responsibilities are too important.”

     Not only will key administrative positions in the Pentagon be empty, but all diplomats appointed by Barack Obama also must vacate their posts immediately.  This practice is customary.  Unfortunately, the Trump team has made only one diplomatic appointment thus far.  Nicki Haley was tapped to serve as U.N. Ambassador -- just one of the 188 positions that are now vacant.  Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has not and will not be confirmed by the Senate for some time.

     This situation is disturbing for two reasons: 1.) Trump’s speeches have a tendency to agitate listeners and we will not know the impacts of his inaugural speech until he starts talking; and, 2.) He has vowed to continue to communicate his (often vitriolic and bellicose) thoughts via Twitter.  Thus, Trump will speak to the world without diplomats to smooth already ruffled feathers in China, Israel, and Mexico.

     Trump also has left Washington, D.C. a weak spot with the dismissal of the person in charge of a significant segment of inaugural event security.  Washington, D.C. National Guard chief, Major General Errol R. Schwartz, was ordered into retirement effective January 20 at 12:01 p.m. in the midst of the D.C. Guard’s deployment at the inauguration.  According to the Washington Post, Schwartz is responsible for overseeing the D.C. National Guard, coordinating an additional 5,000 unarmed Guard troops from across the country and overseeing military air support at the capital during the ceremony.  Though the official correspondence relieving Schwartz reportedly came from the Pentagon, it is the President who hires and fires the National Guard commander in Washington, D. C.

     Officials will be ready to halt social unrest and threats of terrorism in a crowd of 800,000-900,000 people.  The security team will be comprised of 28,000 personnel from local police agencies, the National Guard, Secret Service, Capitol Police, National Park Service, FBI, Transportation Security Administration and Federal Aviation Administration.  My confidence in these security personnel is not diminished by Schwartz’s dismissal; however, removing a commander in the middle of any major military deployment is disrespectful and hurts morale.

     Trump should know this, but he doesn’t seem to care.  Throughout his campaign, his forceful communication style baited Americans to respond with equal and opposite force from their own perceptual framework.  Not surprisingly, 99 organizations applied to the National Park Service for First Amendment event permits.  Mike Litterst, public affairs officer of the National Mall and Memorial Parks, told NBCnews.com the number of applications is significant because “they typically have only provided about a half dozen for past inaugurations.”

     The Park Service reportedly approved 22 permits for protests ranging in size from 50 people to 200,000.  Leaders of some organizations have pledged to use physical resistance to protect their members if citizens with opposing views threaten them.  The permitting process allows officials to separate groups that might clash.  However, protests with fewer than 25 people need no permit and the NPS has no control over where or how these groups protest.

     For some reason Donald Trump seems confident that everyone will behave and respect his authority.  Has he, in surrounding himself with loyalists and private security details for decades, failed to notice the office of the president comes with increased risk?  Does Trump earnestly believe the stuff of his ego-generated alternate reality; or, does he have something else in mind?

     This writer thinks that if a certain strategy worked once, Trump will use it again to get what he wants.  If Trump ultimately hopes to create a global and domestic structure that benefit his business interests and simultaneously feeds his insatiable ego, he will use it as many leaders have, successfully, throughout history as a means to the same ends.

The Hegelian Principle

     The Hegelian Principle was created by 19^th century German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel. The three-part process of “Thesis, Antithesis, and Synthesis,” has been used repeatedly by leaders interested in gaining power, status, wealth and control.  In America, a recent example of the Hegelian Principle resulted in congress’s approval of the Patriot Act.  Here is how it works.

     First, leaders must create a problem or conflict.  This must be the kind of problem that creates a sense of urgency and fear.  Secondly, the problem must be publicized.  Although the problem is a complete fabrication, incessant media repetition makes this problem seem so real that it causes citizens to clamor for a speedy resolution.  Finally, the leader must offer terrified citizens a solution which, without fail, broadens the power of authorities and reduces the rights of citizens.  The solution previously would not have been acceptable at all without public hysteria.

     So, what’s it going to be, Mr. President?

     Public unrest and race-based violence in the streets?  An international economic reaction to insulting tweets?  The three-headed threat of weak borders, drugs and jihad?  How about a “fake” news conspiracy involving the U.S. government and a shadowy cabal of international hackers?  Trump has been test-marketing all of these made-for-TV scenarios, but this writer predicts the real “disaster” will be echoed in the words of our 42^nd president, Bill Clinton.

     “It’s the economy, stupid.”

     Trump’s tweets already have caused international currency volatility and may annoy the Chinese into slapping the U.S. with trade sanctions.  This, in turn, will erode consumer confidence, increase inflation, cause stock market instability, and piss off the working-class.  If Trump’s campaign promises to reverse DACA are kept, we will witness long-term unemployment as immigrants currently granted work visas lose their jobs.  Retailers already experiencing lower third-quarter earnings will see the trend continue as unemployment and inflation increase.  If economic uncertainty does not raise citizen resentment, reductions in the funding of healthcare programs serving veterans, women and Medicaid qualifiers certainly will.

     The solution presented to respond to one disaster or another will depend upon how citizens react and at what pace the various disasters unfold.  Be completely clear that with every nasty, little Internet chirp, Trump is pushing his agenda forward and he does not give a rat’s back side who gets hurt as long as he wins.

     Stay tuned.  Live and commercial free... The Donald Trump Show airs at 12:01 p.m. EST with a hearty “You’re fired!” to our federal workers.

     So help us, God.