Presidential Predictions: Part One

Like many Americans, at the dawn of a new year I am feeling anxious about our future and how our new leader’s decisions may impact the rest of the world.  One does not need a degree in political science to predict the obstructionist practices of Congress witnessed throughout the Obama administration will continue.  In 2017, I guarantee the color of the road blocks will be blue rather than red.

A great deal of attention will be focused on the Senate in coming weeks as they debate the confirmations of Trump’s cabinet selections.  The words “nepotism,” “campaign donor,” and “no experience” will be prominent in these discussions.  While giving loyalists jobs is nothing new in Washington, serious consideration regarding the résumés of Trump’s picks is imperative.

Here are some of my thoughts and predictions.

Law and Disorder

One of the first things Trump likely will do upon inauguration is reverse President Obama’s 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals executive order. Under that order, approximately 740,000 undocumented immigrants brought to America as children were granted work permits allowing them to remain in the U.S. while they sought citizenship.  If Trump takes the tough line, hundreds of thousands of young adults will be thrown out of work and many will lose educational funding.  Mexican and Canadian officials have been bracing for an influx of returning ex-patriots and immigrants who have sought political and religious asylum in America.

Trump’s claims that DACA is “illegal” will be heard in federal court and he believes Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions can navigate the murky waters of civil rights laws as U.S. Attorney General.  Many in the Senate reportedly disagree with the suitability of this nominee.  Historically, Sessions has been a proponent of reduced funding for tough-on-crime programs and strict immigration enforcement.  However, it is Sessions’ historical racial insensitivity that blocked his nomination as a federal judge in 1986.  During those hearings a parade of legal professionals offered testimony that Sessions was a bigot.  One African-American prosecutor, Thomas H. Figures, stated Sessions called him “boy” and reportedly “admonished me to ‘be careful what you say to white folks’.”  While Sessions may have evolved over the past 40 years, this record will be reopened in the Senate approval process.

No doubt, some decisions regarding civil rights will be brought before the Supreme Court for Constitutional and procedural interpretation.  And who will fill the seat left vacant by the demise of Judge Antonin Scalia?   Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, has been awaiting Senate confirmation for 11 months.  It is likely that if Democrats remain calm, Garland will win approval.  There is no indication that Trump has actually decided to offer his own appointee for the open position at this time although, in May, Trump compiled a list of 11 conservative, white, predominantly male candidates for public consideration.

One would hope Trump is too busy with other matters to intrude in the Supreme Court confirmation process; but, he has demonstrated his ego does not rest.  I predict widespread public protest beginning on January 20 and continuing for some time.

Healthcare

Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly said he would repeal the Affordable Care Act.  His pick for Health and Human Services Secretary is an indication he was serious.  Six-term Congressman Tom Price (R-GA) is an orthopedic surgeon who led opposition to the Affordable Care Act, saying (aud nauseum) that the law interferes with the ability of patients and medical providers to make medical decisions.  Granted, this is an imperfect law; however, rescinding the law in its entirety is not only unlikely but also would be hugely unpopular to people with pre-existing conditions who rely upon its protection.  ACA requires that healthy younger adults who probably would not otherwise purchase health care coverage do so.  This mandate is designed to keep costs lower for the most vulnerable members of society.

International Relations

This writer is very uneasy about the impact Trump and his cabinet selections will have on international relations.

Trump’s choice for Commerce Secretary is Wilbur Ross, a billionaire investor in steel, coal, textiles and automotive operations.  Ross is a strong proponent of privatization and has repeatedly ignored labor concerns and the kinds of serious safety issues that resulted in the Sago mine disaster which killed 12 people.  Ross wants to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports and break the “bondage” of “bad trade deals.”

Expect delays in the potential confirmation of Secretary of State nominee and current Exxon president and CEO Rex Tillerson.  Much has been said in the press about Tillerson’s associations with the leaders of oil rich nations such as Russia who have not always been American allies.  While previous secretaries were nominated because they possessed the diplomatic skills to diffuse aggravation, Tillerson reportedly has used angry outbursts, and projectiles to gain his business objectives in places like Yemen.

As we await Senate confirmations, ponder this:  Trump’s tweets and telephone calls have already angered leaders in China and Israel.  Trump needs a diplomatic corps with the skill to round off his sharp edges and this is not the team with the right stuff.  I expect China will offer retaliatory decisions, the deterioration of Isreali and Palestinian peace, European allies with hurt feelings, heightened mistrust from the Middle East, amplified saber rattling from North Korea and a lot of very uneasy silence in Japan and South Korea.  Delaying Tillerson’s confirmation will not help the situation, but the possibility that Trump will have to identify another selection for Secretary of State may have a preferential result.

Environmental Insecurity

Americans who are concerned by the confluence of industrial imperatives and environmental policies will not be comforted by Trump’s nominations for the secretaries for Interior, the Environmental Protection Agency or the Department of Energy.

Ryan Zinke, Trump’s Department of Interior Secretary nominee, is a former Navy SEAL commander and Montana’s freshman representative.  The department is responsible for managing and conserving federal land and natural resources, the U.S. Forest Service, and administration of programs relating to indigenous people.  Given what transpired recently at the Standing Rock Reservation in the Dakotas, placing a former Navy SEAL chief with seemingly no experience in environmental issues in command of protecting land and people like the Sioux and their embattled treaties is a cognitive disconnection.  Why not nominate a wolf to protect the farm foul, too?

Speaking of cognitive disconnections, Oklahoma attorney general, Scott Pruitt has been given Trump’s endorsement to run the EPA.  Pruitt’s well documented alliance with corporate fossil fuel interests and his failure to defend the environment is anathema to the notion and definition of environmental protection.  Pruitt is a darling of energy industry lobbyists and no friend of the environment.

Let us not forget, that former Texas governor Rick Perry is Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Energy.  While many people confuse the department’s directive with the extraction of fossil fuels, the Energy Department is primarily responsible for protecting America’s nuclear energy and arsenals.  Historically, scientists and (Noble Prize winning) physicists have been placed in this very sensitive position.  Perry, who suggested on several occasions that the agency should be abolished, earned a bachelor’s degree in animal science from Texas A & M.  Perry’s nomination is not only perplexing but really freaking dangerous.

Conclusion

Trump’s selections of cabinet members seem to be unilaterally made to stand in complete opposition of the duties and responsibilities of the departments they would lead.  The nominations are downright baffling.  The hour is late, and there is a great deal of ground to cover.  Stay tuned as up-coming blogs delve deeper into topics such as national security, economics and domestic policy.

For now, I wish all a happy and healthy New Year and peace.