Election Afterthoughts and the Walmart Correlation

     Since the election of Donald Trump as the 45^th President of the United States, citizens have surged into our streets to protest the “unfairness” of our Electoral College system.  Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the election because the rules applicable to electoral delegations decided for the nation.  This has happened before.

     Frequent readers of this blog know this writer is not celebrating Trump’s election.  However, I am not among the protesters in Los Angeles because vocal (or violent) protest is seldom useful.  In my opinion, protesters are reinforcing the differences which became starkly evident during this election cycle at a time when we need to embrace our similarities.  For America to remain safe and strong we must pull ourselves together and not tear our nation asunder.

     On November 9, political pundits were stunned as they realized they had failed to accurately predict this election.  For months they focused on public sentiment, historical trends, and parsing the population; but, they failed to look at the impact of state economies.  Macro- and micro-economic models demonstrated long before the election that people who live in poverty have spread into new regions.  To many voters, a Clinton presidency looked too much like the previous administration and another four years of financial insecurity looked like a death sentence.  Through these eyes, poor people with children voted with their stomachs and their hearts.

     There is a distinct relationship between avoidance of economic facts and the pollster’s failure to anticipate Trump’s popularity.  This very unscientific link is what I call “The Walmart Correlation.”

According to a Wall St 24/7 report in March of this year, Walmart is the biggest single private sector employer in 19 states (AL, AZ, AR, FL GA, IL, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, OH, OK, SC, TN, TX, VA, WV, WY).  This is a distressing fact because Walmart is synonymous with low wages and has historically destroyed family-owned small businesses in areas where it opened its stores.  Not surprisingly, in 17 of the 19 states where Walmart is the largest employer, voters gave Trump a victory.  According to the US CensusBureau, 16 of those states were home to more people in poverty than the national average.

     According to a CNNMoney report, in February Walmart increased its minimum wage from $9 per hour to $10, a change that reportedly affected “virtually all of its hourly workers, including some supervisors, which make up the majority of the company's 1.4 million U.S. workers.  The wage hike will boost a full-time worker's average hourly wage by 3% to $13.38. Part-timers will get an average hourly wage of $10.58, up 6%.”  To put it another way, a full-time Walmart worker earns $2,140 per month and part-timer working 30 hours per week earns $1,354 per month.

    This is a small improvement for workers who labor under the miserly fist of a company that was called a “welfare queen” by Bloomberg View reporter Barry Ritholtz in 2013.  Collectively, Walmart employees reportedly are the biggest consumer of public assistance programs such as Medicaid and WIC. According to Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL), Walmart employees are the biggest group of food stamp recipients nationwide and receive $1,000 on average in public assistance.  Although Walmart is acting within the law, they apparently are not compelled to shoulder responsibility for their employees and shift the burden for living wages and healthcare to taxpayers.

     Many Americans are misinformed about the populations which use public assistance programs.  The average food stamp recipient is white (47%).  Women are twice as likely as men to seek food aid.  While Trump did nothing to disabuse voters of the notion that “illegals” are “syphoning money” from food stamp programs, SNAP applications state: "Documented immigrants can only receive SNAP benefits if they have resided within the United States for at least five years..."

     To qualify for food stamps, a three-person family must earn no more than $2,069 per month or $24,800 per year before taxes. Therefore, the full-time Walmart worker earns too much for food stamps while the part-time worker lives well below the poverty line.

     Daily Beast writer Daniel Gross stated Walmart’s allegiance to low wages has had a deleterious effect on local and regional economies including their own.  He said: “Walmart’s same-store sales are falling as the surrounding retail market surges. What’s the problem? By screwing its workers with low wages, the nation’s largest private-sector employer is preventing a huge chunk of the American workforce from shopping at its stores.”

     Trump spoke loudly and clearly to the fears of his supporters by promising to reduce competition for available jobs by removing immigrant workers from the employment pool.  He offered the possibility of employment with an infrastructure project that would build a wall at the borders of states with high levels of poverty.  He tacitly told voters he would secure public aid resources by removing immigrants who allegedly reduced these resources for Americans in need.  Yet, his promise to cut taxes and eliminate Obamacare would erase access to healthcare through Medicaid and resources for public aid for people on the financial edge. Alas, not all change is good.

     For those who are still upset about a Trump presidency, please put the bullhorn down and start listening. The “bigots” who voted for Trump are just like you in their fear and distress.  The truth about many of Trump’s supporters is this: They are disenfranchised Americans who spoke with their ballots because they had no other way to speak.  Look at these facts and do something constructive for Americans who, like you, were voiceless.

     Stop yelling about them and help them.