Presidential Predictions: Part Two

     The scenery in Washington, D.C. is changing rapidly.  As predicted in this blog on January 1, movement already has begun to dismantle Obamacare and Donald Trump’s pre-inaugural parade is set to the marshal sounds of saber rattling from North Korea.  Though Trump has not caused European leaders too much heartburn yet, Scottish Sunday Herald writer Damien Love hilariously satirized the upcoming BBC broadcast of the inauguration as the debut of a new “Twilight Zone” series.

     Other administrations would organize a cogent response to these events; but there will be none.  So far the next administration is saying WikiLeaks was never used as a propaganda machine, the CIA disseminates unflattering leaks, Putin doesn’t order hacks, and the sky is falling.  Here’s a look at what we may expect from a few of the players on Trump’s national security and communications teams.

National Insecurity

     Even prior to the January 6 release of the Intelligence Community’s declassified “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections” report, Trump was assaulting directors with disparaging remarks about their competence.  Days later when BuzzFeed.com published a 35-page opposition research dossier containing unverified allegations linking him to Russia, Trump pointedly blamed the U.S. Intelligence Community and likened the event to smear campaigns in “Nazi Germany.”  FBI director James Comey, CIA director John Brennan, NSA director Michael Rogers, and National Intelligence director James Clapper denounced Trump’s statements and cautioned him to use restraint.

     Brennan stated: “There is no interest in undermining the president elect. Our responsibility is to understand dangers on the world stage…”  He also said, “I don't think he has a full appreciation of Russian capabilities, Russia's intentions.”

     Soon, the duty of informing Trump on these dangers will be the task of others.  Trump’s pick for the next CIA director is Kansas representative Michael Pompeo.  To his credit, Pompeo is a bright, driven man who passed at the top of his class at West Point in 1986 and served as editor of the Harvard Law Review while earning his law degree at the University.  Pompeo founded Thayer Aerospace and Private Security, and later became president of oilfield equipment company Sentry International.

     Pompeo is active in the conservative Tea Party movement, is a climate denier, denounced Obamacare, and was highly critical of the Obama administration's decision to close the CIA's secret prisons (“black sites”), and its adherence to anti-torture laws.  Pompeo also is highly offended by whistle-blower Edward Snowden and the reforms that followed his disclosures.

     In January 2016, the Wall Street Journal quoted Pompeo as saying: “Congress should pass a law re-establishing collection of all metadata, and combining it with publicly available financial and lifestyle information into a comprehensive, searchable database. Legal and bureaucratic impediments to surveillance should be removed. That includes Presidential Policy Directive-28, which bestows privacy rights on foreigners and imposes burdensome requirements to justify data collection.”

     Wait…  What?! Let’s look at that quote again. “Legal and bureaucratic impediments to surveillance should be removed…” including the presidential policy directive “which bestows privacy rights on foreigners and imposes burdensome requirements to justify data collection.”

     Yes, he said that out loud.

     The incoming administration may not “fully appreciate” the threat Russia presents, but Trump’s security selections seem to have a common interest in extracting information from citizens and combatants by using the most invasive means available.  According to John Sifton, deputy Washington director of Human Rights Watch, Trump’s selection for National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, also “has exhibited basic contempt for international law, including the Geneva Conventions and laws prohibiting torture.”

     Flynn was tapped to serve as Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for the Obama administration in 2012.  The administration sited hard-line views on Islam and a contentious leadership style as reasons for his dismissal from that post in 2014.  Flynn, famously tweeted “Fear of Muslims is RATIONAL…” (Feb 26, 2016, @GenFlynn).  He has increasingly maintained that all American allies should be marshaled to fight a “world war” against ISIS.  In 2016 Flynn reportedly accepted payment from the Russian state-run media machine RT to dine at an extravagant gala with Vladimir Putin.  Photos of Flynn at that dinner were used by the Kremlin as part of their own propaganda campaign.

     Senators should take a serious look at this guy before rubber-stamping approval.  This is THE PERSON who will provide the last (paranoid) whisper in the president-elect’s ear regarding national security issues and his decisions.

Spicer’s Not Nicer

    The president-elect chose Republican National Committee communications director and chief strategist Sean Spicer to serve as White House press secretary.  Spicer leads the team which now includes Hope Hicks (director of strategic communications), Dan Scavino (director of social media), and Jason Miller (communications director).  Spicer, who has a flair for combative and contentious relationships with the press, already is leaning toward breaking tradition and parting ways with daily press briefings.

     In December, Spicer told Fox’s Megyn Kelly: “…I don’t know that it needs to be daily. I don’t know that they need to be on camera. And I think that’s a view shared by a lot of former White House press secretaries, a view by some in the media, in fact, that the White House press briefings have become somewhat of a spectacle.”

     Under ideal circumstances, being a press secretary to any elected official is a stressful job.  Stuff happens.  You can write a speech and the boss can toss it aside and shoot from the lip, leaving you feeling like the person who follows the horses in the parade.  Given Trump’s penchant for midnight Tweets and (ahem) creativity, I would not want to face the White House press corps every day either.  However, daily briefings provide information and a sense of transparency for the press and the public.

     Media outlets like CNN already are accusing Trump with “gas lighting” the public by meeting the facts of his audio- and video-taped statements with claims these events never happened.  Clearly, if the press secretary doesn’t show up for a media briefing, Trump’s reality will be akin to a shimmering oasis in a waterless fact desert.

     Due to the demands of this job, White House press secretaries seldom survive a full, four-year term no matter who is President.  But, people will go the extra mile if they believe in the product they need to sell to the media.  I would be willing to bet hard money that every member of this crew already has a letter of resignation prepared.  The press office should install a revolving door now.

I Predict

     This will be the most paranoid and least transparent administration America has ever known.  If Trump fails to arrest his Twitter habit, he will be solely responsible for international incidents with countries that can back up their upset with nuclear readiness.

     What’s more, when we hear about it, the press will be quoting (maybe accurate, may paranoid) unnamed sources who contacted them without authorization from the Trump White House because they are freaked out and they love their country (and they might be drunk dialing).