An Open Letter to Donald Trump

Mr. President:

     In spite of your disdain for opposition, the First Amendment protects my right to express my opinion.  Opinions are neither facts nor libelous and I welcome your rebuttal.

     Sir, I have given a lot of thought to your mental state over the past two years.  Having spent a good portion of my career in the service of lunatics and politicians, I am qualified to comment on your administration and some of the problems I see.  For the sake of the nation, I hope you accept this message as helpful; but, I believe you lack the requisite capacity to do so.

     “Capacity” is an important legal construct and is the basis of this one-sided discussion.  Before I explain what capacity is, I will tell you what it is not.  Capacity is not “authority.”

     Sociologist Max Weber defined “Rational-Legal Authority” as a power that is granted and acquired from a society's rules and laws. All presidents are bound by the constitution, legal precedent, and the separation of powers.  Rational-legal authority is the basis of modern democracies and allows elected leaders to make decisions and to set policies.  Essentially, the rules that create rational-legal authority also limit a leader from running amok.

     Much to your consternation, the courts used their ration-legal authority to overrule your executive orders for travel bans.  Don’t feel bad.  You’re not the first president to hit that constitutional wall. Even with your copious business experience as a point of reference, your lack of political experience resulted in predictable missteps.

     But, you don’t like rules and laws, do you, sir?  In your business dealings you demonstrated your lack of concern for laws, morals and ethics repeatedly for four decades.  You really never cared what effect your actions had on the lives of others as long as you got what you wanted.  Being elected president did not change you.  This is why so many people are concerned that you lack the capacity to rule our nation safely.  Capacity is defined in legal terms as follows:

“The ability, capability, or fitness to do something; a legal right, power, or competency to perform some act. An ability to comprehend both the nature and consequences of one's acts.

“Capacity relates to soundness of mind and to an intelligent understanding and perception of one's actions…”

     For just a minute let’s forget about tax records, blind business trusts, nepotism, fraud, obstruction, money laundering and treason. Let’s just focus on you and your mental state.  In my opinion (you can’t sue me for an opinion, Don), you appear to lack the legal capacity to appreciate the consequences of your actions and you lack the fundamental ability to be accountable for them.  Investigations might reveal impeachable crimes, but “capacity” is why I believe you should be relieved of your elected position.

     Some pundits and mental health professionals have ascribed terms like grandiose, narcissistic, sociopath, and paranoid to you.  While these terms have bearing on your behavior, I think such labeling oversimplifies certain rudimentary problems.  My theory is, deep down, you’re an infant who never won the love of his father and your entire life has been a series of efforts to get his attention.  Even though he’s deceased, you would like to think that he is proud that you are president, right?  Can we talk about your role models for a moment, Don?

     Your dad must have been a really frightful man.  Your grandfather, his role model, was an opportunistic “businessman” who favored get-rich-quick schemes, bars, brothels, dirty deals, criminal elements, dodging drafts (he spent time in jail for that) and concealing his immigrant status.  Although your grandfather died when your father was just a kid, his impact was made.  Your dad, Frederick Christ Trump, took on the mantel of “the man in the family” because he and your grandmother needed to survive and he simply did the things he learned from your grandfather.

     Given your father’s inauspicious history as a KKK sympathizer (and possible member), his mistreatment of immigrant construction workers and building tenants, his ties to mafia-owned construction companies, his war-time profiteering charges, and the competitive environment of your home the likelihood of your learning socially acceptable ethics and morals was slim.  Face it, the man was a stinking turd, but he was your dad.  Did he make you feel bad because you couldn’t read as well as your siblings? Did it make you sad when he shipped you off to boarding school? Did he say he loved you or did he just shove money at you and tell you to not screw up?

     Little is written about your Scottish-born mother, Maryanne.  I know she was beautiful.  I know she reportedly worked as a maid before your parents married.  I know she was nearly killed by a 16-year-old mugger.  That incident caused your dad to contribute to many medical charities.  But, Don, did your father respect her?  Was she allowed to teach you kindness and self-control or did your dad treat her like a pretty, little, baby-making machine who cooked and picked up after the children?  Was she expected to keep her mouth shut?

     Besides your brother, Fred, who died from his alcoholism at age 42, was there another heavy drinker in your house?  Were drunken fits of rage “normal” where you grew up?  Did you walk on eggshells?  Did you learn to not trust anyone?  Did you learn to be a two-faced liar to avoid getting hit?  Did military school teach you to hide your weaknesses with bragging?  When you were played for a fool did you call it “a win-win” to avoid being called “a loser?”  Did family cruelty teach you resentment and revenge?  Is fear of losing self-control what keeps you sober?

     With a family like yours, how could you be expected to internalize attributes like honesty and integrity?  How could a guy ever learn to validate himself when he was constantly being smacked down?  How could a young man develop himself if his father always had to be better?  How could you ever really be anything but a broken child?

     These days, you demand unflinching loyalty from your inner circle because someone needs to protect you.  You aren’t a grown-up, Mr. Trump.  Your daughter, Ivanka knows it.  Your wife knows it.  The White House staff knows it.  The press knows it.  Your party knows it.  World leaders know it.  Your enemies know it.

     Everybody knows you are an infant but you.  You have no self-control, you are not insightful and you never had the capacity of an adult.  This is why you don’t know how to sit still in a meeting.  This is why you have to touch everything.  This is why you are rude.  This is why you have temper tantrums on Twitter and in public.  This is why you do not accept “no” for an answer.  This is why you call people names.  This is why you think you can take whatever you want and not pay for it.  This is why you respond to facts about your bad actions by saying, “nuh-uh.”  This is why you don’t care who you hurt.  This is why you push, grab, and assault people.  This is why you wanted to play king of the world and why you never knew how “complicated” it could be.  This is why the Russians can count on you to brag about all the top secret stuff you know.  This is why the world is a second away from nuclear war.

     You lack the ability “to comprehend both the nature and consequences” of your actions.  You lack the “soundness of mind” and “intelligent understanding and perception” of how your actions affect everyone -- including yourself.  Capacity, Mr. President.  You are not capable of safely running a country in a very dangerous world.

     For once in your life, Donald, stand up to every bad thing your father ever did, and taught, and stood for.  Do not shame yourself by adding impeachment to your list of infamies.  Step down and put the world back into adult, capable hands.

Sincerely,

S. E. Lyon Kramer

American citizen

The Trump Effect: Silencing Victims of Domestic Violence

 March is National Women’s Month, and as this commemoration of women’s achievements draws to a close I want to address a subject with a strong “Ick Factor.”  Since the beginning of collecting and analyzing crime reports in America, the crimes of domestic violence and rape were classified as the most “unreported" or "under-reported” forms of violent crime in America.  Many perpetrators already escape prosecution.  Now, due to the Trump Administration’s immigration policies and aggressive Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions, more immigrant women are not reporting assault/injuries and dropping court cases to avoid the additional risk of tearing their families apart.

     This is wrong.

Failure to Report

     Law enforcement agencies are aware that the greatest challenge associated with protecting victims of domestic abuse and punishing offenders stem from victims’ unwillingness to report. According to the Department of Justice, “Estimating rates of violence against women, especially sexual assault and other incidents committed by intimate partners continues to be a difficult task. Many factors inhibit women from reporting these crimes either to police or to government interviewers. The private nature of the event, the perceived stigma and the belief that no purpose would be served in reporting the crime keeps an unknown portion of the victims from talking about the event.” Additionally, “fifty-three percent of battered women still involved with the perpetrator experienced self-blame for causing the violence.”

     According to the Los Angeles Times (March 21), L.A. Police Chief Charlie Beck said “reports of sexual assault have dropped 25% among the city’s Latino population since the beginning of 2017 compared with the same period last year” and reports of domestic violence also fell by 10 percent in this ethnic group.  Beck attributed the decrease to fear within immigrant communities that interactions with police or government agencies could lead to deportation.  Officials from ICE deny any correlation.

     Fear of detention in the process of reporting or seeking court ordered protection against the abuser is warranted.  In February, federal agents detained Irvin Gonzalez, a Mexican national living in Texas, after she obtained an order of protection against an allegedly abusive boyfriend in the El Paso County Courthouse.  Although ICE agents claim Gonzalez was contacted outside of the courthouse, surveillance video provided to news agencies by El Paso County Attorney Joanne Bernal clearly showed ICE personnel were inside the courthouse when Gonzalez was taken into custody in the hallway outside the courtroom.

     ICE maintains their goal is to prioritize detaining undocumented immigrants who are in violation of laws that are not related to immigrant status, but Gonzalez reportedly had no outstanding warrants.  Bernal said: “A victim of serious abuse is entitled to a protective order and justice whether she has a criminal record or not… As a result of the actions of the immigration officials — violating the sanctity of the courthouse — there are going to be a lot of victims who are going to be afraid to come forward for fear of facing the same consequences as she did.”

     This was, indeed, the case in Denver where City Attorney Kristin Bronson said women who had filed charges alleging violent domestic assaults in four separate cases notified her office they were dropping those charges.  Bronson believed the victims’ decisions and fear were spawned by a video taken in a Denver Courthouse in February which shows ICE officers waiting in a hallway outside a Denver courtroom for another person.  Bronson reportedly told NPR, “Without victims willing to testify we've had to dismiss those charges and the violent offenders have seen no consequences for their violent acts.”

     The result of ICE’s aggressive tactics runs contrary to the Trump Administration’s stated goal of removing criminals from American society.  If crime victims are unwilling to report violent crimes or to testify against violent offenders, the criminal remains free to commit more crimes in America.

The Economic Impact

     According to a report published by the Centers for Disease Control in 2003, the largest costs associated with domestic violence are medical and economic.  In that report the CDC estimated 5.3 million adults are victimized each year resulting in two million injuries and the loss of eight million days of paid work which is equivalent to over 32,000 full-time jobs.

     More recent statistics compiled by the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence (NCADV) and other organizations indicate the statistics sited by the CDC are low. According to a recent analysis by DoSomthing.org, “The costs of domestic violence amount to more than $37 billion a year in law enforcement involvement, legal work, medical and mental health treatment, and lost productivity at companies.”

     If domestic violence is so costly, why is it still so prevalent?  The primary reason abuse victims remain in or return to violent households is economic.  Between 21 and 60 percent of domestic violence victims lose their jobs due to problems such as absenteeism, reduced job performance or overuse of medical benefits.  The problems associated with lost income are further complicated by financial abuse.  According to a Huffington Post article (October, 2014), in 98 percent of all domestic violence cases, financial abuse also occurs. “The number one reason domestic violence survivors stay or return to the abusive relationship is because the abuser controls their money supply, leaving them with no financial resources to break free.”

     This problem is an epidemic.  The NCADV estimated: “In the United States, an average of 20 people are physically abused by intimate partners every minute.  . This equates to more than 10 million abuse victims annually.”  The coalition also estimated that a woman in America, regardless of race, religion, sexual orientation, economic or immigrant status is assaulted every nine seconds.  Mathematically, this means approximately seven adult females become assault victims every minute.  What of the other people in this statistic?  One in every four men also are victims of assault by intimate partners at some time in their lives which means an average of five male adults also become domestic abuse victims every minute.

     One can construe the remaining eight people included in this statistic who are physically abused every minute in America are children.  Child abuse may be included in some of the associated costs listed above, but few studies have actually been able to quantify the immediate and long-term effects of child abuse.  Clearly, medical expenses, law enforcement involvement, the administration of child protection agencies, family services, and attendance-based subsidies lost by public school districts are economic factors associated with child abuse.  These costs generally are born by cities, counties and states.  An estimated 10 million children are exposed to domestic violence annually.

Living in Fear

     Domestic abuse is a pervasive but preventable problem; and yet, it persists. The NCADV states: “Physical violence is often accompanied by emotionally abusive and controlling behavior as part of a much larger, systematic pattern of dominance and control. Domestic violence can result in physical injury, psychological trauma, and even death. The devastating consequences of domestic violence can cross generations and last a lifetime.”

     The lifetime and multi-generational aspects of abuse are particularly prevalent in people who were exposed to violence as children.  Young children who hear abusive language or see adults physically hurting each other have no frame of reference to understand this is not “normal” family behavior.  If a child in such a home is verbally, physically, or sexually abused his or her home is not a safe haven and the child may believe she “deserved” the assault.

     Children from abusive homes often suffer from low self-esteem, depression, anxiety, and symptoms of PTSD which include amnesia, nightmares and flashbacks.  Sexual assault is the most common form (43 to 47 percent) of physical abuse directly perpetrated against children.  Research indicates children who were sexually abused by a relative suffer intense guilt and shame, depression, and self-destructive behaviors.

     School-age children may realize that all families are not abusive, but many remain silent.  They struggle with the mixed emotions of hating and loving their abuser(s) and needing them for survival.  Consequently, they tend to lead the double life of social conformity in school environments and white-knuckled survival at home.  Not surprisingly, research indicates a correlation between childhood abuse and self-destructive escapism such as substance abuse and suicide.

     When abuse and violence are “normalized,” in childhood, one often fails to see the warning signs of potentially dangerous relationships as they mature.  The backhanded compliment is not heard as an insult.  A hicky is “funny” rather than a bruising mark of control.  His pleas to not go out with friends is not recognized as the beginning of isolation by her until she has no one to turn to for help.  “Love taps” blur boundary lines and are forgiven.  Inch by inch, incident by incident childhood violence becomes adult violence and the cycle continues.

     I know how this happens because I lived it. What I did not know until I began researching this topic over 25 years ago was that I was not alone.  WE are not alone.

     If you are afraid of ICE, go to a place of worship, a school or a hospital and do not leave until they help you.  If you have legal status and ICE officials attempt to detain you, identify themselves as “police,” or are not accompanied by local law enforcement officers, call 9-1-1 to allow local authorities to become involved.  Local authorities want to be involved.

     Ladies and gentlemen, there are city and county police agencies that want to help you protect yourself and your children.  There are county prosecutors in courthouses across America who are dedicated to applying our laws to protect you from your abuser and to obtain justice.  If you are afraid to go to court, tell the prosecutor you want to provide testimony by video tape or by telephone and the court will often make exceptions in cases of violence.

     I know this because I reported.  You need to know this as well.

     You have a right to be safe.

One Down, Forty-seven to Go

     Some of my followers must be wondering what has been on my mind lately. Since the Trump administration took the helm, I have had moments of dismay, but not many surprises.  In a nutshell, here are a few thoughts that have been roaming around in my noggin.

The Press is the Enemy

     The press is the friend of the people.  The press is only the enemy of the president if you’re lying.

Education Secretary Betsy DeVos

     Could there be anyone more unqualified for this office than Ms. DeVos?  I doubt it.  No Education Secretary in the history of the nation has ever earned more dissenting votes during a confirmation process. But, Vice President Pence saved the day by casting the tie-breaking vote.  It's ironic and official: DeVos is a 51-50.

     Just because this woman did not appear to be qualified for the job did not necessarily make her a bad person and I was willing to reserve personal criticism and look at her job performance.  Her first big policy decision began well enough.  Trump wanted to order the rollback of the Obama Administration’s protection of K-12 transgender students in school restrooms, but he needed the agreement of DeVos and Attorney General Jeff Sessions to do so.  DeVos showed some moral character in this statement:

“We have a responsibility to protect every student in America and ensure that they have the freedom to learn and thrive in a safe and trusted environment. This is not merely a federal mandate, but a moral obligation no individual, school, district or state can abdicate. At my direction, the Department’s Office for Civil Rights remains committed to investigating all claims of discrimination, bullying and harassment against those who are most vulnerable in our schools.”

This statement reportedly resulted in a disagreement with Sessions and an invitation to either go along with the administration or resign.  DeVos still has a job.  Madam Secretary, wear that Senate confirmation vote count proudly along all of its connotations of being a danger to yourself and others.  You are both spineless AND unqualified.

Former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn

    It was late when I was writing my Predictions II article and lapsed into a dream state where the Senate finally had some say over who advised the President on matters regarding National Security. Of course they do not.  I said : "Senators should take a serious look at this guy before rubber-stamping approval.  This is THE PERSON who will provide the last (paranoid) whisper in the president-elect’s ear regarding national security issues and his decisions."

     Forget the Senate.  If the Trump transition team had properly vetted Flynn they would have known Flynn was paid 40,000 (according to The New Yorker) to go to Russia for a splashy dinner party with Vladimir Putin in 2015.  Even without a copy of the cancelled check, they could have found Flynn’s chummy photo with Putin on the Internet like the rest of us did.

     Proper vetting would have allowed the General to retire quietly and few people would have known that at some point over the past decade, this honorable military man lost his marbles.  Now, Flynn will not be allowed to go quietly until it is determined whether his actions were a potential violation of the Logan Act, treasonous or, simply inappropriate.

Secretary of State Tillerson

   Let’s play a game that resembles “Where in the World is Matt Lauer” but one that has more serious consequences.  As CNN pointed out, “The State Department is responsible for explaining US foreign policy to the country and the world, and is the only agency outside of the White House that traditionally speaks publicly every day through a televised news conference. But since January 19, there has been no State Department briefing and, after Tillerson recently took the helm, there has been little in the way of communication...”

     As of today, Tillerson was in Mexico, attempted to calm that government in the wake of the Trump administration’s contentious announcement that it would be deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants within the next two years.  Mexico reportedly is upset.

     What is more troubling than Tillerson’s silence is his long-standing ties to Vladimir Putin and the Russian oil empire.  As the CEO of Exxon, Tillerson reportedly developed a very congenial relationship with many top officials in Russia which resulted in his being awarded the Russian “Order of Friendship” in 2012.  Tillerson has been a frequent visitor to Russia for at least nine years.  It is a fact that Russian intelligence agencies compile dossiers on important foreign visitors just like American intelligence agencies do.  One hopes Tillerson’s actions were completely professional and did not provide Russia with data that could be used to damage his reputation.  One hopes Tillerson cannot be implicated in Russiagate.

     This blogger feels sure that at some point Tillerson will be dragged into Russiagate.

     And while we’re on the subject of oil…

Standing Rock

     Mr. President, I hold you personally responsible for today’s publically-funded assault on unarmed protesters at Standing Rock.  A handful of protesters were swarmed by local and military personnel and again exposed to serious injuries as a result of water cannon, rubber bullets, and tear gas.  The civil rights abuses documented by the Daily Beast and supported by over 100 sworn affidavits are sickening, heartbreaking and down-right evil.

     Mr. Trump, prior to the election it was disclosed that you were a shareholder in Energy Transfer Partners, the parent company that is building this pipeline.  Is this asset in a blind trust now?  If you have not divested, you may have had a conflict of interest in approving the actions of the Army Corps of Engineers as you may be a direct beneficiary of the profits obtained from this construction.  Without the full financial disclosure you promised and then reneged upon it is impossible to be sure.

     Regardless, approving this pipeline ignores the concerns of environmental scientists and other experts who have repeatedly stated that 17 million people are at risk of having their water supplies polluted.  This sir, is an environmental hazard.

     This is also one more unforgivable violation of America’s treaty with the Sioux.

     The Standing Rock Sioux Reservation originally established on April 29, 1868 in Article 2 of the Treaty of Fort Laramie.  The Sioux Nation (like Canada, Mexico, England)  is a sovereign nation that is equal to the Federal Government of the United States.  This legal status has not stopped our Congress and various Presidents from violating their nation’s land ever since that time.  This is the latest salvo in America’s ugly history with this minority population and it is illegal  The Supreme Court’s ruling in United States v. Sioux Nation of Indians, 448 U.S. 371, 388 (1980).is just as applicable in this situation as it was before.  Using history as a guide, by the time the current class action reaches a court of law, the Sioux will have a pipeline under their corner of the Missouri River thanks to you, Mr. Trump.  You do not mess with the people of the earth.  You do not abuse people who have less money and power.  You do not spoil the land and water of 17 million people in OUR country without consequences.

     The same words used by comedian and political commentator Larry Wilmore to address disgraced former Breitbart.com editor Milo Yiannoopoulos also apply to you in this case, Mr. President.

Dear World

Dear World:

     I speak for millions of Americans when I tell you that it is a dark hour in our nation.  Millions of Americans would never dream of turning you away.  We are a nation of immigrants and view our new president’s entry ban as mortifying.  This is not who we are.  Please know, we are fighting with the freedom we were granted by our founding fathers for our lives and yours.

     We know our election of Donald Trump looks idiotic to the world.  I do not disagree.  His egotism, bigotry, and lack of diplomacy is shocking.  Who could have failed to see his capricious disregard for the law? How could anyone believe he would change?

     Getting to this point was a process, World.

     Many Americans who felt angry and voiceless admired Trump’s ability to speak with impunity.  Over the past decade Americans were fed a pabulum of entertainment masquerading as news and are grossly uninformed.  Reports of Trump’s alleged abuses, fraudulent business deals and tax evasion (which he emphatically denies as “media lies”) seemed too comical to be credible.  We were warned by reputable journalists about all of these problems, but some people either did not hear the warnings or did not heed them.

     Trump supporters voted primarily with their emotions.  He validated voter fears.  Knowing many Americans have never traveled outside the perimeter of their home towns, Trump pointed toward our borders and said the people “out there” are “bad.”  To the Americans who still cannot obtain good-paying jobs due to economic conditions or a lack of competitive skills, Trump lied and said “illegal immigrants” were a “problem” he alone could solve.  Then he showed them what they really wanted: Money.  Impoverished voters were conned.

     Bombarded by an endless campaign and a 24-hour “news” cycle focused on his every bombastic word, Americans failed to realize the hypnotic power of propaganda.  His voters bought a product that was too good to be true without contemplating its “no return” policy.

     Now at this point of no return, Trump’s policies have closed our points of entry.  Many Americans still have not realized that executive and physical walls – just like the Berlin Wall – serve a dual purpose.  Trump’s administration has not only made our nation unwelcoming, but also has made our citizens unwelcome around the globe.  We are trapped by executive order.

     Dear World, divided as Americans are at this moment, we are still a nation of immigrants who are fighting to keep Liberty’s torch burning.  Muslim brothers and sisters and refugees, we stand by you.  We stand for you.  Please stand with us as we challenge this terrible injustice.

     We are you.

Presidential Predictions: Part 3, Zero Hour

     It is now only hours until Donald Trump takes the oath of office to become the 45^th president of the United States.  In spite of his confidence leading up to the election, his team apparently was so surprised by his victory that they failed to proactively vet potential cabinet members.  As a result, Trump will take his oath of office without even one cabinet nominee confirmed by the Senate.  Simultaneously, Team Trump is making careless decisions regarding national and domestic security.

Captain Chaos

     Trump is calling for the immediate dismissal of Obama administration appointees, some of whom are in highly sensitive security positions. Beginning at 12:01 p.m., he will retain only six of the 58 high-ranking officials at the Pentagon.  According to Gizmodo.com, red flags went up for Senate Armed Services Committee member, Martin Hienrich (D-NM), when he discovered the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) would have no one at the helm.  In a letter to the president elect dated January 17, Heinrich wrote:

“As you know, all of President Barack Obama’s appointed officials are required to vacate their office unless they are requested by the incoming administration to serve for an extended period of time.  As of today, the heads of maintaining our nation’s nuclear arsenal, Lieutenant General Frank G. Klotz (Ret.), and Principal Deputy Administrator, Madelyn Creedon, have not been requested to continue serving.... This will be the first time in NNSA’s 16-year history, through four different administrations, in which there will not be any continuity of leadership during a presidential transition.

“…I understand that new administrations, regardless of political party, bring new management and personnel, but the United States faces an increasing number of global threats—to include North Korea, Russia, China, Iran, and terrorist organizations across several continents—and we simply cannot afford to allow national security positions to effectively run on “auto-pilot.” The responsibilities are too important.”

     Not only will key administrative positions in the Pentagon be empty, but all diplomats appointed by Barack Obama also must vacate their posts immediately.  This practice is customary.  Unfortunately, the Trump team has made only one diplomatic appointment thus far.  Nicki Haley was tapped to serve as U.N. Ambassador -- just one of the 188 positions that are now vacant.  Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has not and will not be confirmed by the Senate for some time.

     This situation is disturbing for two reasons: 1.) Trump’s speeches have a tendency to agitate listeners and we will not know the impacts of his inaugural speech until he starts talking; and, 2.) He has vowed to continue to communicate his (often vitriolic and bellicose) thoughts via Twitter.  Thus, Trump will speak to the world without diplomats to smooth already ruffled feathers in China, Israel, and Mexico.

     Trump also has left Washington, D.C. a weak spot with the dismissal of the person in charge of a significant segment of inaugural event security.  Washington, D.C. National Guard chief, Major General Errol R. Schwartz, was ordered into retirement effective January 20 at 12:01 p.m. in the midst of the D.C. Guard’s deployment at the inauguration.  According to the Washington Post, Schwartz is responsible for overseeing the D.C. National Guard, coordinating an additional 5,000 unarmed Guard troops from across the country and overseeing military air support at the capital during the ceremony.  Though the official correspondence relieving Schwartz reportedly came from the Pentagon, it is the President who hires and fires the National Guard commander in Washington, D. C.

     Officials will be ready to halt social unrest and threats of terrorism in a crowd of 800,000-900,000 people.  The security team will be comprised of 28,000 personnel from local police agencies, the National Guard, Secret Service, Capitol Police, National Park Service, FBI, Transportation Security Administration and Federal Aviation Administration.  My confidence in these security personnel is not diminished by Schwartz’s dismissal; however, removing a commander in the middle of any major military deployment is disrespectful and hurts morale.

     Trump should know this, but he doesn’t seem to care.  Throughout his campaign, his forceful communication style baited Americans to respond with equal and opposite force from their own perceptual framework.  Not surprisingly, 99 organizations applied to the National Park Service for First Amendment event permits.  Mike Litterst, public affairs officer of the National Mall and Memorial Parks, told NBCnews.com the number of applications is significant because “they typically have only provided about a half dozen for past inaugurations.”

     The Park Service reportedly approved 22 permits for protests ranging in size from 50 people to 200,000.  Leaders of some organizations have pledged to use physical resistance to protect their members if citizens with opposing views threaten them.  The permitting process allows officials to separate groups that might clash.  However, protests with fewer than 25 people need no permit and the NPS has no control over where or how these groups protest.

     For some reason Donald Trump seems confident that everyone will behave and respect his authority.  Has he, in surrounding himself with loyalists and private security details for decades, failed to notice the office of the president comes with increased risk?  Does Trump earnestly believe the stuff of his ego-generated alternate reality; or, does he have something else in mind?

     This writer thinks that if a certain strategy worked once, Trump will use it again to get what he wants.  If Trump ultimately hopes to create a global and domestic structure that benefit his business interests and simultaneously feeds his insatiable ego, he will use it as many leaders have, successfully, throughout history as a means to the same ends.

The Hegelian Principle

     The Hegelian Principle was created by 19^th century German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel. The three-part process of “Thesis, Antithesis, and Synthesis,” has been used repeatedly by leaders interested in gaining power, status, wealth and control.  In America, a recent example of the Hegelian Principle resulted in congress’s approval of the Patriot Act.  Here is how it works.

     First, leaders must create a problem or conflict.  This must be the kind of problem that creates a sense of urgency and fear.  Secondly, the problem must be publicized.  Although the problem is a complete fabrication, incessant media repetition makes this problem seem so real that it causes citizens to clamor for a speedy resolution.  Finally, the leader must offer terrified citizens a solution which, without fail, broadens the power of authorities and reduces the rights of citizens.  The solution previously would not have been acceptable at all without public hysteria.

     So, what’s it going to be, Mr. President?

     Public unrest and race-based violence in the streets?  An international economic reaction to insulting tweets?  The three-headed threat of weak borders, drugs and jihad?  How about a “fake” news conspiracy involving the U.S. government and a shadowy cabal of international hackers?  Trump has been test-marketing all of these made-for-TV scenarios, but this writer predicts the real “disaster” will be echoed in the words of our 42^nd president, Bill Clinton.

     “It’s the economy, stupid.”

     Trump’s tweets already have caused international currency volatility and may annoy the Chinese into slapping the U.S. with trade sanctions.  This, in turn, will erode consumer confidence, increase inflation, cause stock market instability, and piss off the working-class.  If Trump’s campaign promises to reverse DACA are kept, we will witness long-term unemployment as immigrants currently granted work visas lose their jobs.  Retailers already experiencing lower third-quarter earnings will see the trend continue as unemployment and inflation increase.  If economic uncertainty does not raise citizen resentment, reductions in the funding of healthcare programs serving veterans, women and Medicaid qualifiers certainly will.

     The solution presented to respond to one disaster or another will depend upon how citizens react and at what pace the various disasters unfold.  Be completely clear that with every nasty, little Internet chirp, Trump is pushing his agenda forward and he does not give a rat’s back side who gets hurt as long as he wins.

     Stay tuned.  Live and commercial free... The Donald Trump Show airs at 12:01 p.m. EST with a hearty “You’re fired!” to our federal workers.

     So help us, God.

Presidential Predictions: Part Two

     The scenery in Washington, D.C. is changing rapidly.  As predicted in this blog on January 1, movement already has begun to dismantle Obamacare and Donald Trump’s pre-inaugural parade is set to the marshal sounds of saber rattling from North Korea.  Though Trump has not caused European leaders too much heartburn yet, Scottish Sunday Herald writer Damien Love hilariously satirized the upcoming BBC broadcast of the inauguration as the debut of a new “Twilight Zone” series.

     Other administrations would organize a cogent response to these events; but there will be none.  So far the next administration is saying WikiLeaks was never used as a propaganda machine, the CIA disseminates unflattering leaks, Putin doesn’t order hacks, and the sky is falling.  Here’s a look at what we may expect from a few of the players on Trump’s national security and communications teams.

National Insecurity

     Even prior to the January 6 release of the Intelligence Community’s declassified “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections” report, Trump was assaulting directors with disparaging remarks about their competence.  Days later when BuzzFeed.com published a 35-page opposition research dossier containing unverified allegations linking him to Russia, Trump pointedly blamed the U.S. Intelligence Community and likened the event to smear campaigns in “Nazi Germany.”  FBI director James Comey, CIA director John Brennan, NSA director Michael Rogers, and National Intelligence director James Clapper denounced Trump’s statements and cautioned him to use restraint.

     Brennan stated: “There is no interest in undermining the president elect. Our responsibility is to understand dangers on the world stage…”  He also said, “I don't think he has a full appreciation of Russian capabilities, Russia's intentions.”

     Soon, the duty of informing Trump on these dangers will be the task of others.  Trump’s pick for the next CIA director is Kansas representative Michael Pompeo.  To his credit, Pompeo is a bright, driven man who passed at the top of his class at West Point in 1986 and served as editor of the Harvard Law Review while earning his law degree at the University.  Pompeo founded Thayer Aerospace and Private Security, and later became president of oilfield equipment company Sentry International.

     Pompeo is active in the conservative Tea Party movement, is a climate denier, denounced Obamacare, and was highly critical of the Obama administration's decision to close the CIA's secret prisons (“black sites”), and its adherence to anti-torture laws.  Pompeo also is highly offended by whistle-blower Edward Snowden and the reforms that followed his disclosures.

     In January 2016, the Wall Street Journal quoted Pompeo as saying: “Congress should pass a law re-establishing collection of all metadata, and combining it with publicly available financial and lifestyle information into a comprehensive, searchable database. Legal and bureaucratic impediments to surveillance should be removed. That includes Presidential Policy Directive-28, which bestows privacy rights on foreigners and imposes burdensome requirements to justify data collection.”

     Wait…  What?! Let’s look at that quote again. “Legal and bureaucratic impediments to surveillance should be removed…” including the presidential policy directive “which bestows privacy rights on foreigners and imposes burdensome requirements to justify data collection.”

     Yes, he said that out loud.

     The incoming administration may not “fully appreciate” the threat Russia presents, but Trump’s security selections seem to have a common interest in extracting information from citizens and combatants by using the most invasive means available.  According to John Sifton, deputy Washington director of Human Rights Watch, Trump’s selection for National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, also “has exhibited basic contempt for international law, including the Geneva Conventions and laws prohibiting torture.”

     Flynn was tapped to serve as Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for the Obama administration in 2012.  The administration sited hard-line views on Islam and a contentious leadership style as reasons for his dismissal from that post in 2014.  Flynn, famously tweeted “Fear of Muslims is RATIONAL…” (Feb 26, 2016, @GenFlynn).  He has increasingly maintained that all American allies should be marshaled to fight a “world war” against ISIS.  In 2016 Flynn reportedly accepted payment from the Russian state-run media machine RT to dine at an extravagant gala with Vladimir Putin.  Photos of Flynn at that dinner were used by the Kremlin as part of their own propaganda campaign.

     Senators should take a serious look at this guy before rubber-stamping approval.  This is THE PERSON who will provide the last (paranoid) whisper in the president-elect’s ear regarding national security issues and his decisions.

Spicer’s Not Nicer

    The president-elect chose Republican National Committee communications director and chief strategist Sean Spicer to serve as White House press secretary.  Spicer leads the team which now includes Hope Hicks (director of strategic communications), Dan Scavino (director of social media), and Jason Miller (communications director).  Spicer, who has a flair for combative and contentious relationships with the press, already is leaning toward breaking tradition and parting ways with daily press briefings.

     In December, Spicer told Fox’s Megyn Kelly: “…I don’t know that it needs to be daily. I don’t know that they need to be on camera. And I think that’s a view shared by a lot of former White House press secretaries, a view by some in the media, in fact, that the White House press briefings have become somewhat of a spectacle.”

     Under ideal circumstances, being a press secretary to any elected official is a stressful job.  Stuff happens.  You can write a speech and the boss can toss it aside and shoot from the lip, leaving you feeling like the person who follows the horses in the parade.  Given Trump’s penchant for midnight Tweets and (ahem) creativity, I would not want to face the White House press corps every day either.  However, daily briefings provide information and a sense of transparency for the press and the public.

     Media outlets like CNN already are accusing Trump with “gas lighting” the public by meeting the facts of his audio- and video-taped statements with claims these events never happened.  Clearly, if the press secretary doesn’t show up for a media briefing, Trump’s reality will be akin to a shimmering oasis in a waterless fact desert.

     Due to the demands of this job, White House press secretaries seldom survive a full, four-year term no matter who is President.  But, people will go the extra mile if they believe in the product they need to sell to the media.  I would be willing to bet hard money that every member of this crew already has a letter of resignation prepared.  The press office should install a revolving door now.

I Predict

     This will be the most paranoid and least transparent administration America has ever known.  If Trump fails to arrest his Twitter habit, he will be solely responsible for international incidents with countries that can back up their upset with nuclear readiness.

     What’s more, when we hear about it, the press will be quoting (maybe accurate, may paranoid) unnamed sources who contacted them without authorization from the Trump White House because they are freaked out and they love their country (and they might be drunk dialing).

Presidential Predictions: Part One

Like many Americans, at the dawn of a new year I am feeling anxious about our future and how our new leader’s decisions may impact the rest of the world.  One does not need a degree in political science to predict the obstructionist practices of Congress witnessed throughout the Obama administration will continue.  In 2017, I guarantee the color of the road blocks will be blue rather than red.

A great deal of attention will be focused on the Senate in coming weeks as they debate the confirmations of Trump’s cabinet selections.  The words “nepotism,” “campaign donor,” and “no experience” will be prominent in these discussions.  While giving loyalists jobs is nothing new in Washington, serious consideration regarding the résumés of Trump’s picks is imperative.

Here are some of my thoughts and predictions.

Law and Disorder

One of the first things Trump likely will do upon inauguration is reverse President Obama’s 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals executive order. Under that order, approximately 740,000 undocumented immigrants brought to America as children were granted work permits allowing them to remain in the U.S. while they sought citizenship.  If Trump takes the tough line, hundreds of thousands of young adults will be thrown out of work and many will lose educational funding.  Mexican and Canadian officials have been bracing for an influx of returning ex-patriots and immigrants who have sought political and religious asylum in America.

Trump’s claims that DACA is “illegal” will be heard in federal court and he believes Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions can navigate the murky waters of civil rights laws as U.S. Attorney General.  Many in the Senate reportedly disagree with the suitability of this nominee.  Historically, Sessions has been a proponent of reduced funding for tough-on-crime programs and strict immigration enforcement.  However, it is Sessions’ historical racial insensitivity that blocked his nomination as a federal judge in 1986.  During those hearings a parade of legal professionals offered testimony that Sessions was a bigot.  One African-American prosecutor, Thomas H. Figures, stated Sessions called him “boy” and reportedly “admonished me to ‘be careful what you say to white folks’.”  While Sessions may have evolved over the past 40 years, this record will be reopened in the Senate approval process.

No doubt, some decisions regarding civil rights will be brought before the Supreme Court for Constitutional and procedural interpretation.  And who will fill the seat left vacant by the demise of Judge Antonin Scalia?   Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, has been awaiting Senate confirmation for 11 months.  It is likely that if Democrats remain calm, Garland will win approval.  There is no indication that Trump has actually decided to offer his own appointee for the open position at this time although, in May, Trump compiled a list of 11 conservative, white, predominantly male candidates for public consideration.

One would hope Trump is too busy with other matters to intrude in the Supreme Court confirmation process; but, he has demonstrated his ego does not rest.  I predict widespread public protest beginning on January 20 and continuing for some time.

Healthcare

Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly said he would repeal the Affordable Care Act.  His pick for Health and Human Services Secretary is an indication he was serious.  Six-term Congressman Tom Price (R-GA) is an orthopedic surgeon who led opposition to the Affordable Care Act, saying (aud nauseum) that the law interferes with the ability of patients and medical providers to make medical decisions.  Granted, this is an imperfect law; however, rescinding the law in its entirety is not only unlikely but also would be hugely unpopular to people with pre-existing conditions who rely upon its protection.  ACA requires that healthy younger adults who probably would not otherwise purchase health care coverage do so.  This mandate is designed to keep costs lower for the most vulnerable members of society.

International Relations

This writer is very uneasy about the impact Trump and his cabinet selections will have on international relations.

Trump’s choice for Commerce Secretary is Wilbur Ross, a billionaire investor in steel, coal, textiles and automotive operations.  Ross is a strong proponent of privatization and has repeatedly ignored labor concerns and the kinds of serious safety issues that resulted in the Sago mine disaster which killed 12 people.  Ross wants to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports and break the “bondage” of “bad trade deals.”

Expect delays in the potential confirmation of Secretary of State nominee and current Exxon president and CEO Rex Tillerson.  Much has been said in the press about Tillerson’s associations with the leaders of oil rich nations such as Russia who have not always been American allies.  While previous secretaries were nominated because they possessed the diplomatic skills to diffuse aggravation, Tillerson reportedly has used angry outbursts, and projectiles to gain his business objectives in places like Yemen.

As we await Senate confirmations, ponder this:  Trump’s tweets and telephone calls have already angered leaders in China and Israel.  Trump needs a diplomatic corps with the skill to round off his sharp edges and this is not the team with the right stuff.  I expect China will offer retaliatory decisions, the deterioration of Isreali and Palestinian peace, European allies with hurt feelings, heightened mistrust from the Middle East, amplified saber rattling from North Korea and a lot of very uneasy silence in Japan and South Korea.  Delaying Tillerson’s confirmation will not help the situation, but the possibility that Trump will have to identify another selection for Secretary of State may have a preferential result.

Environmental Insecurity

Americans who are concerned by the confluence of industrial imperatives and environmental policies will not be comforted by Trump’s nominations for the secretaries for Interior, the Environmental Protection Agency or the Department of Energy.

Ryan Zinke, Trump’s Department of Interior Secretary nominee, is a former Navy SEAL commander and Montana’s freshman representative.  The department is responsible for managing and conserving federal land and natural resources, the U.S. Forest Service, and administration of programs relating to indigenous people.  Given what transpired recently at the Standing Rock Reservation in the Dakotas, placing a former Navy SEAL chief with seemingly no experience in environmental issues in command of protecting land and people like the Sioux and their embattled treaties is a cognitive disconnection.  Why not nominate a wolf to protect the farm foul, too?

Speaking of cognitive disconnections, Oklahoma attorney general, Scott Pruitt has been given Trump’s endorsement to run the EPA.  Pruitt’s well documented alliance with corporate fossil fuel interests and his failure to defend the environment is anathema to the notion and definition of environmental protection.  Pruitt is a darling of energy industry lobbyists and no friend of the environment.

Let us not forget, that former Texas governor Rick Perry is Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Energy.  While many people confuse the department’s directive with the extraction of fossil fuels, the Energy Department is primarily responsible for protecting America’s nuclear energy and arsenals.  Historically, scientists and (Noble Prize winning) physicists have been placed in this very sensitive position.  Perry, who suggested on several occasions that the agency should be abolished, earned a bachelor’s degree in animal science from Texas A & M.  Perry’s nomination is not only perplexing but really freaking dangerous.

Conclusion

Trump’s selections of cabinet members seem to be unilaterally made to stand in complete opposition of the duties and responsibilities of the departments they would lead.  The nominations are downright baffling.  The hour is late, and there is a great deal of ground to cover.  Stay tuned as up-coming blogs delve deeper into topics such as national security, economics and domestic policy.

For now, I wish all a happy and healthy New Year and peace.